🎬 Trillion-Dollar Club

👋 Good morning! From blockbuster box office to the Library of Congress—’Minecraft’ is having quite the cultural moment. The iconic video game's theme song ‘C418’ has been inducted into the National Recording Registry, the Library of Congress's archive of sound recordings deemed "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant" to American life.

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🎞 Here’s what’s on the reel today:

• Netflix Eyes the Trillion-Dollar Club

• LA Hits New Lows… Again

• The “Not OpenAI” Club

• The Great Window Standoff

• Last Looks: 👀 Bite-sized scoops on developing stories/projects

• Video Village: The latest trailers

• Martini Shot 🍸

CLOSEUP
🎯 Netflix is eyeing the trillion-dollar club...

Talk about a tale of two futures: While most Hollywood executives are bracing for a potential $45B industry-wide hit from market volatility (according to a sobering Moffett Nathanson analysis), Netflix is quietly plotting something audacious—joining Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet in the exclusive trillion-dollar club.

In a recent company meeting that feels more Silicon Valley than Hollywood, Netflix executives unveiled their moonshot: doubling revenue to $78B, tripling operating income to $30B, and accumulating 410M subscribers by 2030. At nearly $400B already, analysts are betting on Netflix's ability to not just survive economic turbulence, but actually thrive in it—potentially leaving traditional media companies permanently in the dust.

Why Netflix can weather the storm…

• Only 4% of its revenue comes from advertising, insulating it from ad market volatility

• Subscription entertainment historically performs well during downturns (cheaper than restaurants, travel, or theaters)

• $10.4B in annual profit provides a substantial cash cushion

• Global content strategy means less reliance on any single market affected by trade issues

Why rivals should be worried:

• Paramount (35% ad revenue) and Warner Bros. Discovery (21%) are heavily exposed to advertising pullbacks

• Theme park operators like Disney and Comcast face potential tourism declines

• Production costs expected to rise industry-wide due to supply chain disruptions

• Most competitors are barely profitable or still losing money on streaming

Netflix isn't completely immune to recession, rising costs, or slowing U.S. growth. The difference? It has the cash cushion and business model to absorb these shocks while rivals don't.

The bigger picture: Netflix already towers over the streaming landscape according to recent streaming reports. Ironically, economic uncertainty might actually help Netflix pull even further ahead. As competitors slash budgets and consider mergers to survive, Netflix is chasing a trillion-dollar valuation—territory no entertainment company has ever reached.

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WIDESHOT
🎬 New lows, AI partnerships, and theatrical windows…

🎬📉 L.A. filming levels hit new lows… again. Los Angeles film and TV production continues its downward spiral, with FilmLA reporting a 22% decrease in shoot days during Q1 2025 compared to last year. We know this feels like the same gloomy headline every quarter (we're running out of synonyms for "decline"), but the numbers tell a stark story across the board:

• Overall shooting: ⬇️ 22%

• TV production: ⬇️ 30.5% (nearly 50% below 5-year average)

• TV comedy: ⬇️ 29.9%

• TV drama: ⬇️ 38.9%

• Reality TV: ⬇️ 26.4%

• Feature films: ⬇️ 28.9%

• Commercials: ⬇️ 2.1%

• TV pilots: Only 13 shot (lowest ever recorded)

The situation is especially concerning for TV workers, with filming down 58% from its 2021 peak, while soundstage occupancy has dropped from 69% to 63%. Even the recent wildfires that affected Pacific Palisades and Altadena were found to have had minimal impact—meaning this production exodus is simply the new Hollywood normal. Stay tuned for next quarter's report, where we're hoping for a plot twist that doesn't involve the words “historic low.”

🎬🤖 Hollywood's new AI collaborators all have one thing in common: they're not OpenAI. Runway (a film-focused AI company) keeps landing deals with filmmakers like Harmony Korine and the Oscar-winning Larraín brothers. Media giant Fremantle has even launched a new AI-focused studio called Imaginae. Meanwhile, OpenAI's executives left Los Angeles empty-handed when pitching their Sora video tool to major studios. What’s the difference? Companies getting Hollywood's stamp of approval are playing by the rules—building AI trained only on properly licensed content (like Runway's deal with Lionsgate), letting filmmakers maintain creative control, and promising to uphold "the strictest intellectual property and compliance standards." Meanwhile, OpenAI's "move fast, break things" approach that worked so well in the tech world has studios and unions waving red flags about copyright concerns. For the film and TV industry, this suggests AI is being integrated on terms that at least maintain traditional IP protections and revenue models, though the long-term impact remains to be seen. Turns out Hollywood won't let you sit at the cool kids' table if you've been copying everyone's homework.

📅🍿 Theaters and studios are playing a $100M game of chicken over release windows. We've all heard the "streaming is killing theaters" debate on loop, but The Numbers recently dropped actual receipts. Their comprehensive analysis reveals that movies with 21 to 44-day theatrical windows before hitting streaming cost theaters a whopping $132M in box office revenue compared to what they would have earned with longer exclusivity periods. Counterintuitively, films with ultra-short 18-day windows actually saw a slight box office boost, likely because the compressed timeline creates a concentrated marketing push where theatrical and home viewing promotions sync up rather than compete. The most eye-opening finding? Studios themselves "aren't necessarily making much more money" from these shorter windows once theatrical losses are factored in—making this less David vs. Goliath and more of a circular firing squad. Remember, pre-pandemic windows stretched to 90 days, but now exhibitors like Cinema United's Michael O'Leary are simply begging for a 45-day minimum as the new industry standard. Many studio execs, however, remain skeptical we'll ever wind back the clock in today's on-demand world.

🤔💭 Tell us your thoughts. We want your take on theatrical windows. Take our quick survey and sound off. 👇

LAST LOOKS
Film Development 🗒️

• Dennis Quaid, Nick Offerman, and Jacob Tremblay star in true-crime thriller ‘Sovereign.’ (more)

• DreamWorks Animation has announced ‘Forgotten Island,’ a magical adventure comedy rooted in Philippine mythology. (more)

• Sam Neill has joined the cast of Legendary’s next ‘Monsterverse’ film, which will feature Godzilla and Kong facing a new world-ending threat. (more)

• Britt Lower will lead ‘Sender,’ a psychological horror film produced by Jamie Lee Curtis about a woman haunted by a disturbing package scam. (more)

• Nicholas Galitzine and Bill Skarsgård will star in ‘Mosquito Bowl,’ a WWII football drama from director Peter Berg and Netflix. (more)

• Xochitl Gomez and Maite Perroni will star in ‘No Te Olvides,’ an original musical feature. (more)

• A24 has joined Jesse Eisenberg’s new musical comedy starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. (more)

• Jessica Chastain will star in a new horror film from Rob Savage, based on Josh Malerman’s novel ‘Incidents Around the House.’ (more)

TV Development 📺

• HBO unveils the adult cast for its ‘Harry Potter’ TV remake, with John Lithgow as Dumbledore and a “faithful adaptation” promised for the series. (more)

• Lucy Hale will star in and executive produce ‘Dead Letters,’ a Netflix psychological thriller series based on Caite Dolan-Leach’s novel. (more)

• Sheryl Crow and LeAnn Rimes will join ‘The Voice’ S27 as mega mentors, guiding contestants through the high-stakes playoff rounds. (more)

• James Marsden joins S2 of Apple TV+ drama ‘Your Friends & Neighbors’ as a series regular. (more)

Acquisitions💰

• Apple acquires Sundance award-winning documentary ‘Come See Me in the Good Light,’ set to premiere on Apple TV+ this fall. (more)

• Bleecker Street has acquired U.S. rights to ‘Rebuilding,’ a Sundance drama starring Josh O’Connor as a cowboy rebuilding his life after wildfires. (more)

• Mubi has acquired North American streaming rights to ‘Invention,’ a conspiracy film by Courtney Stephens and Callie Hernandez. (more)

• Prime Video has acquired U.S. rights to Jacob Elordi’s WWII drama ‘The Narrow Road to the Deep North,’ set to premiere April 18. (more)

Renewed & Canceled ✅ ❌

• Peacock has canceled ‘Based on a True Story’ after two seasons and ‘Mr. Throwback’ after one. (more)

Other News 🚨

• YouTube hit a new record for TV usage in March while Prime Video’s ‘Reacher’ led all streaming with 6.6B minutes viewed, according to Nielsen. (more)

• The Alamo Drafthouse strike in NYC has ended after a deal reinstating all laid-off workers was reached between the union and management. (more)

• A new study finds Gen Z subscribes to 26% more apps and services than the average American, spending nearly $940 a year. (more)

• Stop reading scripts. Start listening to them with Screenplayer. (more)*

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