🎬 The Ad Dollar War

👋 Good morning! Peak opening weekend hustle: Benny Safdie spent the weekend at AMC Century City wearing a sandwich board sign for 'The Smashing Machine,' trying to convince Swifties leaving Taylor's album release event to give his Dwayne Johnson wrestling drama a shot. A24 only found out two weeks ago they'd be sharing the weekend (and losing some of their premium screens) to Swift's surprise drop.

Welcome back to The Dailies. Hope your weekend was more relaxing than Benny Safdie’s. We've got the full box office report plus everything else Hollywood was up to while you were recharging. Let's dig into those numbers. 👇

BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN
🎟️ How to make $33M with a few social media posts…

1. 💃 Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl: 🆕 $33M domestic opening, $46M global debut. Swift announced this 89-minute album listening party just two weeks ago with an Instagram post (no trailers, no TV spots, nothing else) and still topped the weekend. It earned an A+ CinemaScore from fans who showed up for this one-weekend-only event.

2. 🍺 One Battle After Another: (Wk 2) $11.1M domestic weekend (-49%), $42.8M domestic total, $101.7M global, $130M budget. PTA's Leonardo DiCaprio epic crosses $100M globally, becoming the director's highest-grossing film ever, though it still needs legs to justify that hefty price tag.

3. 🥊 The Smashing Machine: 🆕 $6M domestic opening, $50M budget. Dwayne Johnson's dramatic UFC biopic comes in with the lowest wide opening of his career and a rough B- CinemaScore, despite Venice Film Festival acclaim.

4. 🏠 Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie: (Wk 2) $5.2M domestic weekend (-62%), $21.6M domestic total, $32.5M global, $32M budget.

5. 😈 The Conjuring: Last Rites: (Wk 5) $4.1M domestic weekend (-40%), $167.8M domestic total, $458M global, $55M budget.

6. 👹 Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle: (Wk 4) $3.5M domestic weekend (-51%), $124.6M domestic total, $633M global, $20M budget.

7. 🌊 Avatar: The Way of Water: (re-release) $3.2M domestic weekend, $687.6M lifetime domestic total. Cameron brought his sequel back to 2,140 theaters to get everyone ready for ‘Fire and Ash’ this December.

8. 👻 The Strangers: Chapter 2: (Wk 2) $2.8M domestic weekend (-52%), $10.7M domestic total, $8.5M budget.

9. 🐕 Good Boy: 🆕 $2.25M domestic opening. IFC scored with this horror film told from a dog's perspective. It’s sitting at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and is their second-best opening to date.

10. 🚶 The Long Walk: (Wk 4) $1.7M domestic weekend (-49%), $31.9M domestic total, $20M budget.

The big picture: The weekend brought in $82.4M total, with Swift providing a significant chunk of the weekend total. Without her surprise album party, we're looking at just under $50M, one of the weakest weekends all year. Overall we’re up 7.7% from last week and 2025 is now running about 3% ahead of 2024 year-to-date. Theaters hope Disney's 'Tron: Ares' can maintain the momentum next weekend.

CLOSEUP
📲 Sora has unleashed a copyright free-for-all…

SpongeBob is selling drugs. Cartman's reading Bible verses. Rick and Morty are teaching yoga to the Minions. Welcome to Sora, OpenAI's new AI tool that generates videos from text prompts and features copyrighted characters unless rights holders explicitly “opt out” (because that’s how copyright works now, apparently).

The app went live last week, and users immediately started pumping out AI-generated videos featuring protected IP faster than you can say "cease and desist." It's already the #1 free app in the App Store, beating out Google Gemini and even ChatGPT.

Hollywood's not taking it lying down…

• Disney and Netflix were reportedly furiously trying to opt out.

• WME immediately opted out every actor, director, and creator they represent and started offering free AI-detection tools to their clients.

• Entertainment lawyers say studios have grounds to sue. Some speculate that OpenAI might want to get sued: one big class action settlement beats thousands of negotiations, plus they’d get to keep growing while lawyers duke it out.

The elephant in the room: Sora's ability to perfectly recreate protected characters implies that OpenAI trained its model on copyrighted content without permission. Disney reminded OpenAI that opting out doesn't mean they’re granting retroactive permission for training (nice try, though).

Sam Altman's Friday night damage control: After a week of backlash, the OpenAI CEO wrote a late-night blog post promising rights holders "more granular control" over character generation. He's now proposing that OpenAI would share revenue with studios when users generate content with their characters, framing this as enabling "interactive fan fiction" that could create value for studios. Altman admits users are generating "much more than expected" content (no kidding, Sam).

Zoom out: Many in Hollywood see this as YouTube all over again. That platform grew huge on copyrighted clips while media companies debated how to respond. By the time they acted, YouTube had millions of users and set the terms. The fear now is that AI companies are running the same playbook: build fast, get too big to stop, then negotiate from a position of power.

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CLOSEUP
🏎️ Fast & Furious may be too expensive to continue…

Universal isn't even sure it wants to make another Fast & Furious movie. The studio told filmmakers they'll only greenlight the next sequel if they can make it for $200M. That sounds like a lot… until you realize 'Fast X' cost $340M. Despite Vin Diesel telling fans to expect an April 2027 release, here’s where things stand:

• There’s currently no approved script (the current draft would cost $250M to produce)

• There’s no official release date

• Most cast members don't have deals

• Vin Diesel's usual $25M+ paycheck is suddenly negotiable

• Some stars might get cut entirely to save money (sorry, “family”)

It’s a far cry from the way things used to go: Studios used to lock release dates years out, then race to figure out the movie. They'd rubber-stamp $300M+ budgets for globe-trotting productions with massive ensemble casts. Now, Universal won't even commit to making the film.

The math isn't math-ing anymore: 'Fast X' (2023) grossed $705M worldwide—the franchise's worst showing in over a decade despite costing $340M. It's joined Marvel, DC, and Transformers in learning that massive budgets no longer guarantee massive returns (turns out audiences have limits, even for cars in space).

Plus, the international safety net is gone: Russia's market has been closed to Hollywood since the Ukraine war began, China announced it would "moderately reduce" Hollywood imports, and Asian audiences now prefer local productions. These overseas markets used to deliver 60-70% of grosses, justifying mega-budgets. Not anymore. The new mantra at the box office: "$700M is the new $1B"—that's the benchmark studios now hope to hit for these blockbusters.

Looking ahead… The next Fast & Furious (if it happens) is planned as the current cast's finale. After that, Universal's exploring cheaper alternatives: TV series, character spinoffs, and lower-budget films aimed at new audiences rather than banking on nostalgia.

STATISTIC
📊 Creators are winning the ad dollar war…

The Interactive Advertising Bureau just dropped its September report on where ad dollars will land in 2025. Overall growth projections were trimmed from 7.3% to 5.7% thanks to tariff fears. But breaking it down reveals the real story: traditional TV is hemorrhaging ad revenue, digital video is holding steady, and creator platforms (social media and podcasts) are actually accelerating. The money isn't disappearing, it's changing hands. The updated projections:

• Traditional TV: -14.4% (worse than expected)

• Digital video (YouTube, streaming ads): +7.4% (reduced from +8.8%)

• CTV (Netflix, Hulu, Max): +11.4% (reduced from +13.8%)

• Social media: +14.3% (UP from earlier forecasts)

• Podcasts: +7.9% (also UP)

Why the difference: Advertisers facing economic uncertainty want two things: proof of ROI and flexibility. Traditional TV offers neither—you're locked into expensive buys months ahead with fuzzy demographics. Digital video and CTV do better with actual viewer tracking. But creators win this moment completely with precise data on who watched, clicked, and bought, plus campaigns can pivot instantly.

LAST LOOKS
Film Development 🗒️

• Adam Driver and Anne Hathaway will star in Ron Howard’s military drama ‘Alone at Dawn.’ (more)

• Jason Bateman is in talks to direct ‘The Partner’ for Universal, with Tom Holland set to star in the John Grisham adaptation. (more)

• Passage Pictures snagged film rights to ‘The Talented Miss Farwell,’ a con-artist tale inspired by a real $50M fraud. (more)

• New Line is in final talks with Michiel Blanchart to direct ‘Final Destination 7’ after the franchise’s record-breaking ‘Bloodlines’ installment. (more)

TV Development 📺

• Netflix has unveiled the cast for its coming-of-age drama ‘The Body,’ about Catholic school girls whose visions spark mass hysteria. (more)

• Warner Bros. has acquired Mark Ronson’s memoir ‘Night People’ for a feature adaptation produced by Brad Pitt’s Plan B. (more)

• Prime Video has renewed ‘Ballard’ for S2. (more)

• Fox has canceled animated comedy ‘The Great North’ after five seasons. (more)

Business 🤝

• Sony Pictures has hired longtime Disney exec Louie Provost as executive VP of production. (more)

• Erin Doyle has been promoted to ‘SNL’’s top producing circle alongside veterans Steve Higgins and Erik Kenward. (more)

Other News 🚨

• Warner Bros. Discovery is ending the 24/7 CNN livestream on ‘HBO Max’ ahead of the network’s new standalone streaming launch this fall. (more)

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