🎬 No Frontrunner?

👋 Good morning! California's new law to crack down on political deepfakes just got the axe from a federal judge. Gov. Gavin Newsom's attempt to regulate AI-manipulated content before elections has been blocked, with the judge declaring it a First Amendment bulldozer. As Hollywood grapples with the rise of AI, this ruling adds another layer to the already complex debate over tech, truth, and free speech.

Welcome aboard the Dailies. As you sip your morning brew, we’ll get you caught up with the fast-paced world of Hollywood—no need to chase down a newsstand, we’ve got everything you need right here.

🎞 Here’s what’s on the reel today:

• ‘Joker 2’ Faces Shifting Foreign Market

• A Uncertain Oscar Season Begins

• ‘Nickel Boys’ Playbook

• Last Looks 👀: Bite-sized scoops on developing stories/projects

• Release Radar: What to watch this weekend

• Video Village 📀

• Martini Shot 🍸

But first, it’s Friday, so let’s take a look at what people were watching this week… 👀

TOP STREAMED THIS WEEK IN THE US

🎭💸 ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ might not be laughing its way to the bank this weekend. Warner Bros.’ $190M sequel is tracking for a $55-60M opening—a steep drop from the original’s impressive $96M debut. But why is this highly anticipated follow-up struggling in a market where sequels typically thrive?

Lukewarm buzz at the Venice Film Festival certainly didn’t help. But the real culprit seems to be a significant shift in the foreign box office market. The 2019 ‘Joker’ raked in a staggering 69% of its $1.1B haul from overseas. Today, blockbusters are lucky to see half their profits from foreign shores.

Case in point: ‘Twisters’ whipped up an impressive $267M domestically but only mustered $103M internationally—less than 30% of its worldwide total, bucking the traditional blockbuster trend.

It's not that foreign audiences have stopped watching films—they're just not flocking to Hollywood fare in theaters like before.

The Global Picture:

• 🐉 China's Cold Shoulder: Once Hollywood's golden goose, China's now giving the silent treatment. Stricter import quotas and a push for local flicks have left U.S. blockbusters out in the cold.

• 🏠 Home Team Advantage: From France's rom-coms to South Korea's zombie thrillers, homegrown productions are resonating deeply with audiences craving culturally relevant stories. What kills in Kansas might flop in Kyoto.

• 💸 Economic Squeeze: Post-pandemic wallet-tightening has made pricey Hollywood tickets a tougher sell globally.

• 📺 Streaming Surge: With more international viewers opting for home entertainment, theatrical releases are feeling the pinch.

• 🦠 COVID Hangover: Some markets are still shaking off pandemic-era habits, with cinema-going not quite back to its pre-2020 levels.

Looking Ahead: As Joker and Harley Quinn step into the spotlight, the odds seem stacked against them. But hey, there's always a chance for some box office magic—the first ‘Joker’ surprised everyone with its performance back in 2019.

The Bottom Line: Hollywood's struggle overseas isn't just about one clown prince. It's a symptom of a larger shift in global entertainment consumption. As studios grapple with this new reality, we might see a reimagining of how blockbusters are made and marketed for international audiences.

🎥🏆 Oscar season 2025 is off to an unusually uncertain start, with no clear frontrunners emerging from a lackluster box office year and confusing festival circuit. As pundits begin their annual predictions, they're met with a field of "maybes" rather than frontrunners. Unlike 2023's ‘Oppenheimer’ vs. ‘Barbie’ showdown, this year lacks clear blockbuster contenders, possibly due to lingering effects of the writers' and actors' strikes and shifting audience habits. Sequels like ‘Dune: Part Two’ vie for attention alongside international films like Cannes darlings ‘Anora’ and ‘Emilia Perez.’ Several unseen heavy-hitters, including Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan in ‘A Complete Unknown,’ could shake up the race before the Dec. 31st eligibility cutoff. Even animated features are eyeing a Best Picture breakthrough. With the awards landscape in flux, this season promises surprises and potential dark horses—it's anyone's game, and the next few months will be crucial in shaping the field.

🎬🏆 'Nickel Boys' is making a bold strategic pivot in its release schedule, bucking traditional wisdom for specialty films. Orion Pictures & Amazon MGM's adaptation, directed by RaMell Ross, wowed audiences at Telluride and opened the New York Film Festival. Now, with an 80% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, it's shifting from its original October/November dates to a mid-December debut—NYC on Dec. 13, LA on Dec. 20. This move is eyebrow-raising for several reasons:

• 🗓️ Timing Twist: While most specialty films like 'Queer,' 'Conclave,' and 'Juror #2' are sticking to November, 'Nickel Boys' is boldly stepping into the December fray, landing fresh in voters' minds during crucial nomination windows.

• 🍿 David vs. Goliath Play: By entering the December arena, typically reserved for big-budget holiday blockbusters, 'Nickel Boys' is positioning itself alongside much bigger films, suggesting confidence in its crossover appeal.

• 🌆 Staggered Strategy: The classic platform release (NYC, then LA) allows for buzz-building, unusual for a December launch when most films go wide immediately.

• 📈 Post-Festival Confidence: This late-stage shift comes after positive fall festival screenings, suggesting growing faith in the film's broader appeal.

• 🔄 'American Fiction' Redux: The move mirrors Amazon's successful strategy with 'American Fiction' last year, hinting at a deliberate pattern.

• 🎞️ Cinephile Bait: Offering 35mm prints is a savvy nod to serious film buffs and potentially awards voters.

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Development 🗒️

• Faye Dunaway joins the supernatural thriller ‘The Evilry,’ with production set to begin in West Virginia this month. (more)

• Amazon MGM has won the high-priced bidding war for the spec script ‘Outdueled,’ a contemporary action-adventure by F. Scott Frazier and Jimmy Loweree. (more)

• Miramax has acquired distribution rights for Derek Cianfrance’s ‘Roofman,’ starring Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst. (more)

• A live-action/CGI ‘Rugrats’ movie is in development at Paramount, with ‘Pitch Perfect’ director Jason Moore set to helm the adaptation. (more)

• Halle Berry is in talks to join Chris Hemsworth in Amazon MGM Studios’ thriller ‘Crime 101,’ directed by Bart Layton. (more)

• Kurt Sutter has exited Netflix’s ‘The Abandons’ due to creative differences, leaving executive producer Otto Bathurst to finish production. (more)

• Matthew Gray Gubler is returning to CBS to star in and produce the crime procedural pilot ‘Einstein,’ playing the great-grandson of Albert Einstein. (more)

• Briarcliff Entertainment has acquired Jonathan Majors’ film ‘Magazine Dreams,’ dropped by Searchlight after his guilty verdict, and plans to release it in early 2025. (more)

• Topher Grace has joined Kevin Williamson’s Netflix drama series ‘The Waterfront’ in a recurring role. (more)

✅ Renewed & Canceled ❌

• ‘Sugar’ is renewed for S2 on Apple TV+. (more)

• ‘The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives’ is renewed for 20 additional episodes by Hulu. (more)

• ‘That 90’s Show’ is canceled by Netflix. (more)

Business 🤝

• Prime Video revealed its ad-supported UK reach of 19M viewers, equivalent to over a third of British adults. (more)

• Paramount faces a potential class action lawsuit for allegedly violating New York’s WARN Act by failing to give 90 days’ notice before laying off over 300 employees in September. (more)

• Disney is laying off approximately 75 employees across ABC News and ABC Owned Television Stations as part of ongoing cost-cutting measures. (more)

Other News 🚨

• Teamsters Locals 399 and 817 have ratified a new three-year casting agreement with the AMPTP. (more)

• Give your newsletters VIP treatment with a dedicated reader outside your inbox. (more)*

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What to watch this weekend? 👀

🎥 THEATRICAL

• Joker: Folie à Deux: Long awaited musical sequel starring Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga, directed by Todd Phillips.

• Monster Summer: Family adventure comedy with a horror twist, starring Mason Thames and Mel Gibson, directed by David Henrie.

• White Bird: A Wonder Story: Period drama set in Nazi-occupied France, starring Helen Mirren and Gillian Anderson, directed by Marc Forster.

📺 STREAMING

• Chef’s Table: Noodles: (Netflix) Documentary series exploring the artistry of noodle-making, featuring four acclaimed chefs.

• The Menendez Brothers: (Netflix) True crime documentary featuring prison interviews with Lyle and Erik Menendez, who were convicted of murdering their parents in 1989.

• The Platform 2: (Netflix) Spanish sci-fi thriller sequel set in a dystopian prison, starring Milena Smit and Hovik Keuchkerian, directed by Galder Gaztelu-Urrutia.

• Salem’s Lot: (Max) Horror adaptation of Stephen King's vampire novel, starring Lewis Pullman and Alfre Woodard, directed by Gary Dauberman.

• House of Spoils: (Prime Video) Supernatural horror film starring Ariana DeBose and Barbie Ferreira, directed by Bridget Savage Cole and Danielle Krudy.

• The Franchise (HBO): Satirical comedy series about a superhero film production, starring Himesh Patel and Aya Cash.

🔮 BOX OFFICE PREVIEW

Initial projections for this weekend's box office are in, and here's what we're looking at:

• ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ is eyeing a $55-60M domestic debut.

• ‘The Wild Robot’ is poised for a strong second weekend, potentially snagging $15-20M. As the family-friendly alternative, it could over-perform given positive word-of-mouth.

• ‘Beetlejuice Beetlejuice’ continues its impressive run, projected to earn $8-12M in its fifth weekend. Tim Burton's sequel has already become his second-highest domestic earner.

• The total weekend box office is estimated between $80-110M. While lower than hoped, it's still a solid start for October.