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š¬ Maybe We'll Pay You?
The Scoop On 'If Come' Deals, Streamers Eating Networks' Lunch, and MORE!
š Good morning! TimothĆ©e Chalamet chose chaos on SNL this weekend, skipping his āA Complete Unknownā hits for three deep-cut Dylan tracks... in his own distinctly irreverent style. The Oscar nominee (still hunting for that first win) played a bold medley of āOutlaw Bluesā and āThree Angels,ā then grabbed an acoustic guitar to close with a stripped-down āTomorrow Is a Long Timeāāwith James Blake making a surprise appearance on keys. Bob Dylan purists are either fuming or fascinatedāthere's no in-between.
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š Hereās whatās on the reel today:
The Rise of If-Come Deals
Streamers Dominate Unscripted
Last Looks: š Bite-sized scoops on developing stories/projects
Video Village: The latest trailers
Call Sheet: The week ahead
Martini Shot šø
But first, letās take a look at what happened at the box office this past weekend!
BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN
šļø āFlight Riskā charts a quiet courseā¦
Michelle Dockery as Madolyn and Mark Wahlberg as Daryl in 'Flight Risk.'
āļø Flight Risk: $12M domestic opening. Mel Gibson's airplane thriller with Mark Wahlberg lands at #1, though with tepid reviews (22% on Rotten Tomatoes) and lukewarm audience response (C CinemaScore).
š¦ Mufasa: The Lion King: $8.7M domestic weekend (-28%), $221.1M domestic total. Disney's prequel continues strong holds in week 6, benefiting from being the only major family film still exclusive to theaters.
š One of Them Days: $8M domestic weekend (-32%), $25.1M domestic total. SZA and Keke Palmer's R-rated comedy shows decent legs in sophomore frame.
š¦ Sonic the Hedgehog 3: $5.5M domestic weekend (-36%), $226.1M domestic total. Speedy blue blur still running well in week 6 despite PVOD release.
š Moana 2: $4.3M domestic weekend (-28%), $450M domestic total. Disney's animated sequel sailing past major milestones in week 9.
š» Presence: $3.4M domestic opening. Steven Soderbergh's experimental ghost story (shot from the POV of the ghost) earns strong reviews (87% on RT) but struggles to find audience (C+ CinemaScore).
šŗ Wolf Man: $3.4M domestic weekend (-69%), $17.8M domestic total. Universal's horror reboot takes massive bite out of earnings in week 2.
šø A Complete Unknown: $3.1M domestic weekend (-17%), $62.9M domestic total.
š¦ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera: $3M domestic weekend (-55%), $31.9M domestic total. Heist sequel starts to wind down in week 3.
šļø The Brutalist: $2.9M domestic weekend (+46%), $9.3M domestic total. A24's Oscar hopeful expands to 1,118 theaters.
The Big Picture: Hollywood's January hangover continues with a sleepy $66.3M weekend haulāthough hey, at least that's up 17.8% from last year's snooze-fest. Studios are clearly saving their A-list content for later, with only one flick (looking at you, āFlight Riskā) breaking the $12M mark this month. Help is on the way this weekend: Universal's animated film 'Dog Man' hits theaters as the first major family release since 'Moana 2' in November. The new release should inject some life into theaters, with projected earnings of $20-25M.
CLOSEUP
š¤ āHey, write us a showā¦ maybe weāll pay you?ā
Thatās the latest pitch writers are hearing across Hollywood, as the industryās newest cost-cutting measure transforms how TV shows get developed.
Here's how it works: Instead of paying writers to develop shows (you know, like they used to), studios are pushing "if-come" deals. Translation? "If we can sell your show somewhere, then you'll get paid." Until then... crickets.
These arrangements, once reserved for newbies and risky pitches, are becoming standard operating procedure at major studios like Sony Pictures Television and Skydanceāwith even seasoned writers getting these āwork now, pray laterā offers.
Some key developments:
Writers are being asked to develop full season bibles, take multiple revision notes, and create detailed outlinesāall without any guarantee of payment
Itās pretty rare to see a show from these arrangements actually make it to series
Some studios are demanding 'first position'āmeaning if the project sells months later, writers must prioritize it over any other work
Writers working on IP-based pitches (like book adaptations) are especially vulnerable, as they can't reuse their work elsewhere
Now, the Writers Guild isn't having it. They've got rules against free workāpretty clear ones, actually. But studios are getting creative with loopholes calling fees "producerial" or claiming revisions are just "voluntary."
The WGA says studios must pay minimum rates for written workāno ifs, ands, or if-comes about it. Still, enforcement remains tricky, especially as some established writers privately accept these deals while publicly opposing them.
Why's it happening?
Writers are hungry for work after last year's strike
Studios in full penny-pinching mode in an era of budget cuts
Traditional pilot season's death means more extensive development materials needed
Risk-averse studios wanting fully baked projects before committing funds
Looking ahead... This new modelās got everyone wondering if itās sustainable. Writers are essentially becoming unpaid development execs, while agents spend time negotiating deals that may never pay out. With no clear success stories from these arrangements, the industry might need to rethink this approach.
CLOSEUP
šŗ Streamers are eating TVās unscripted lunchā¦
The unscripted TV landscape is getting a major makeover, with streaming platforms muscling out traditional networks as the power players. The latest evidence? NBCUniversal just split its reality TV leadership between NBC broadcast and Peacock streamingāa controversial move that pushed out unscripted chief Corie Henson, who had been managing hits across both. It's a telling sign of how traditional media companies are struggling to bridge the old and new TV worlds, even as streaming platforms become the dominant buyers of unscripted shows.
The big picture:
Netflix and Peacock are now the hungriest buyers of unscripted content
Old-school networks are playing it safe with dinosaurs like āThe Bachelorā and āSurvivorā
Even A-list reality producers are having to adapt their pitches for the streaming era
Some eye-opening numbers:
Netflix added a record-breaking 18.9M subscribers in Q4 2024
MrBeast's Amazon show pulled in 50M viewers in just 25 days
āThe Traitorsā' S3 premiere became Peacock's biggest unscripted debut ever
The streaming revolution has completely flipped reality TV's old playbook. Where shows like āThe Bachelorā once rolled out country by country over many years, streaming platforms now launch series globally on day oneāNetflix's āSquid Game: The Challengeā debuted in 93 countries simultaneously. While traditional networks mainly stick to maintaining aging franchises like āSurvivor,ā streaming platforms are aggressively investing in new development and even turning their scripted hits into reality shows, betting big on formats that can work worldwide.
Looking ahead... This power shift in reality TV mirrors the broader entertainment industry transformation. While traditional networks aren't completely out of the game (Fox is still actively buying), streaming platforms are clearly writing the future of unscripted content.
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LAST LOOKS
Development šļø
A24 shifts the release of āThe Legend of Ochiā to April 25 after director Isaiah Saxon loses his home in the LA fires. (more)
Anna Faris and Rick Edwards team up to host NBCās new dating show pilot, āLove Takes A Village.ā (more)
Chris Prattās sci-fi thriller āMercy,ā directed by Timur Bekmambetov, shifts its release to January 23, 2026. (more)
Zach Cregger is set to write and direct a āResident Evilā reboot, sparking a major bidding war between studios. (more)
Lionsgate acquires āAfter Shock,ā a high-concept disaster story starring rising star Brandon Sklenar, in the yearās first major deal. (more)
Kaitlyn Dever joins the cast of Legendaryās next āGodzilla x Kongā sequel. (more)
Daisy Ridleyās āStar Warsā sequel about Rey Skywalker is still in development, now with writer George Nolfi onboard to craft the story. (more)
Scott Teti takes over as showrunner for āBachelor in Paradiseā S10. (more)
Aidan Gillen, Joe Alwyn, Naledi Murray, Ben Chaplin, and Sebastian Orozco join Sam Esmailās cyber-thriller āPanic Carefully.ā (more)
Awkwafina joins Arnold Schwarzenegger and Alan Ritchson in Amazon MGMās holiday heist comedy āThe Man with the Bag.ā (more)
Ivan Reitmanās āDraft Dayā is being adapted for TV with a basketball twist, produced by Lionsgate, SpringHill, and Madison Wells. (more)
Tim McGraw exits Netflixās bull-riding drama series due to back surgery, prompting the role to be recast. (more)
Brad Pitt reunites with director David Ayer for action-thriller āHeart of the Beast,ā set to be produced by Pittās Plan B Entertainment for Paramount. (more)
Sundance š
Joe Huntingās short documentary āThe Reality of Hope,ā has been acquired by Asteria and Documentary+ for a 2024 streaming release. (more)
James Shaniās Rich Spirit acquires āBlknws: Terms & Conditions,ā resolving a dispute with Participant Media allowing it to premiere at Sundance after all. (more)
Renewed & Canceled ā ā
āSelling the OCā is renewed for S4 at Netflix. (more)
Other News šØ
Over 6,000, including LeVar Burton and Alison Brie, sign the Stay In LA petition urging new production incentives to rebuild Los Angelesā entertainment industry after wildfires. (more)
CALL SHEET
š
The week ahead
THURSDAY: Apple and Comcast announce their earnings š
FRIDAY: Charterās earnings announcement š
SUNDAY: Sundance Film Festival ends š
VIDEO VILLAGE
šŗ Latest trailers
INTERMISSION: A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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See you bright and early on Wednesday!
-The Dailies Team
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