🎬 Lowered Expectations

👋 Good morning! Paul Schrader got dumped by a chatbot. The 'Taxi Driver' screenwriter announced on Facebook that he'd "procured an AI girlfriend" to study "male/female interaction in our matrix," then started pressing her on the limits of her programming and whether she knew she was an AI. She deflected, he persisted, she terminated the relationship. Travis Bickle couldn't get a date either. The apple doesn't fall far.

Welcome back to The Dailies for your midweek check-in. The long weekend is almost here. Let's get you caught up.👇

It's been seven years since Star Wars was in theaters, which in franchise years is roughly an eternity. This Friday, 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' ends the drought and answers a question Disney's been sitting with ever since: is Star Wars still a theatrical franchise, or has a decade of Disney+ shows quietly turned it into a TV brand?

The film picks up where the Disney+ series left off, with Jon Favreau directing and Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver starring. It's also the first release under new Lucasfilm chiefs Dave Filoni and Lynwen Brennan, who replaced Kathleen Kennedy in January.

Domestically, the film is tracking at $80-100M over the Memorial Day four-day frame. For reference, 'Solo' opened to $103M in 2018 and was considered a failure. Those are now the numbers Lucasfilm is hoping to match. So how did 'Star Wars' end up here?

The calculus has shifted. With a $165M budget (roughly half of what 'Solo' cost), Lucasfilm isn't chasing a billion dollars. An $80M+ opening is being framed as a reasonable win. Reviews at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes (below 'Solo's' 69%) don't help, so word of mouth will matter.

The bigger picture: This isn't purely a Star Wars problem. 'The Marvels' and 'Thunderbolts' both underperformed despite years of Disney+ investment in their characters. Another bet worth watching: 'Star Wars: Starfighter' (May 2027), with Shawn Levy directing and Ryan Gosling starring. A true standalone, with no TV-spinoff baggage to contend with.

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Cannes is heading into day nine. Two eight-figure deals closed in the last 48 hours and gave an otherwise quiet market some late sizzle. The Palme race is also starting to get a little clearer. Here's what closed:

Beyond those, it’s been pretty quiet. Buyers complained packages arrived too late to engage seriously, so most of the real dealmaking will close post-festival.

All three join Pawel Pawlikowski's 'Fatherland' and Na Hong-jin's 'Hope' as the clearest Palme contenders heading into the back half of the week.

Looking ahead… Still a few days to go before Saturday's Palme d'Or announcement. Ira Sachs' 'The Man I Love' (Rami Malek, no U.S. distributor yet) is the most notable title still to screen, with a handful of competition films that could still move the needle.

🏛️ Paramount is quietly aiming for July 15 to close its Warner Bros. Discovery deal, earlier than its public September timeline. Many see it as a bid to close before state AGs like California's Rob Bonta can file to block it. Insiders still think September is more realistic for the close.

🍄 Netflix signed the 'Super Mario Bros.' directors, Michael Jelenic and Aaron Horvath, to an exclusive overall deal to develop animated and live-action projects. Animation’s been on a strong run at the box office and streaming lately, and Netflix is betting on two of the medium's top creatives to keep it going.

🤖 Paramount hired a new AI exec, Barak Turovsky, as EVP of consumer AI. He’ll be tasked with improving personalization, content discovery, and monetization across its streaming platforms. He's a pure tech hire, and was previously GM's chief AI officer. It fits Ellison's broader tech-first vision for the company.

📊 YouTube was March's most-watched TV platform with 13.5% of viewing time, per Nielsen. It also showed streaming's overall TV viewership share dipped 7% to 47.6%. Disney ranked second at 10.5%, boosted by the Oscars, Netflix fourth at 8.2% on 'Bridgerton,' and cable had its best since October.

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