🎬 China Litmus Test

🦃 Good morning. As families across America queue up 'Home Alone' for its annual holiday rotation, Macaulay Culkin says he'd actually consider coming back with the right story. His pitch: Kevin McCallister is now a divorced dad who's been working too hard and neglecting his son. The kid gets miffed, locks him out, and starts setting traps. "The house is some sort of metaphor for our relationship," Culkin said. "He has to get let back into his son's heart." Director Chris Columbus recently said the franchise should be "left alone," but Culkin seems ready to go home again.

Welcome back to The Dailies. We’re here with your last update before the turkey coma sets in. We’re off the next few days, back Monday. Until then, here’s what you need to know. 👇

'Zootopia 2' opens in China today, with 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' following in three weeks, and studio executives are watching both releases very closely. More than just movie launches, they're a litmus test for whether the world's second-largest box office still has real value for Hollywood.

The backdrop isn't great: No Hollywood film has hit $100M in China this year. Studios are spending $5M+ on local marketing while only taking home 25% of ticket sales. That's a government-mandated split unique to China; in most international markets, studios keep around 40-50%. And earlier this year, China announced it would be "moderately reducing" U.S. releases.

This fits a broader shift we've tracked all year. Pre-pandemic, overseas markets routinely delivered 60-70% of blockbuster grosses. That ratio has now flipped. This summer's biggest releases earned 50-70% domestically. Only 3 of 2025's top 10 films have earned 60%+ overseas, compared to 8 in 2019. Local productions are dominating markets where American films once ruled.

Why it matters: If two of Hollywood's most China-friendly franchises can't break through, it raises real questions about the economics of $200M+ productions that have long depended on global scale to justify their budgets.

Early signs are very promising: 'Zootopia 2' is tracking toward a $270M global opening, with U.S. advance sales in line with 'Inside Out 2.' China presales are reportedly "fantastic," and the studio expects it to outperform the original there. If those numbers hold, it's a strong signal that Hollywood can still win in China with the right property.

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🍿 Trump wanted 'Rush Hour 4,' and now it's happening. Paramount will distribute the long-gestating Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker sequel, directed by Brett Ratner, on behalf of Warner Bros. The news comes after reports that President Trump personally pressed the Ellisons to revive the franchise. Multiple studios passed on the project, including WB's own New Line, the label behind the original trilogy that grossed $850M worldwide. Ratner was exiled from Hollywood over 2017 sexual assault allegations (which he denied) and recently directed Melania Trump's documentary for Amazon. The news comes as Paramount's new owners, Larry and David Ellison, are also bidding on Warner Bros. Discovery, a deal that would require FCC approval.

📉 LA's market share held steady last year, but the market didn't. FilmLA's latest report shows Los Angeles maintained its position as the top global filming destination in 2024, capturing 18.3% of English-language productions. Sounds encouraging, but here's the catch: industry-wide productions dropped from 1,040 in 2022 to just 857 last year. That's a nearly 20% decline, meaning roughly 70 fewer LA productions, driven largely by collapsing TV output. Still, LA held onto its lead as most domestic rivals like Georgia, New York, and Canada contracted too. The UK bucked the trend though, with a 77% jump in TV series production. California's expanded $750M tax incentive aims to help weather this industry-wide pullback while London quietly gains ground.

📺 Broadcast TV's big consolidation dreams just hit a wall. TV station giant Sinclair submitted a takeover bid for rival E.W. Scripps this week, while Nexstar, America's largest broadcaster, pursues its $6.2B Tegna merger. Both depend on the FCC loosening rules that currently stop any one company from owning stations that cover more than 39% of U.S. households. Station owners say they need scale to compete with streaming and Big Tech, and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr backs scrapping the cap. But a strange coalition opposes them, each for different reasons: President Trump, the FCC's sole Democrat, and Newsmax's CEO. Both companies are now walking back expectations, saying they can still merge under existing rules if they sell off stations to stay under the cap.

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🎥 THEATRICAL

📺 STREAMING

🔮 BOX OFFICE PREVIEW: 'Zootopia 2' is tracking for a $125M five-day domestic debut and around $270M globally, which would make it the second-biggest Thanksgiving animated opener behind last year's 'Moana 2.' Meanwhile, 'Wicked: For Good' should hold strong in weekend two, looking to mirror the original's $118M holiday stretch. Put it together and we might have the second-best Thanksgiving frame ever on our hands, trailing only last year's $425M record.