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👋 Good morning! Alex Honnold climbed a skyscraper Saturday night. Live on Netflix. Without ropes. The free solo legend summited Taiwan's Taipei 101 in just over 90 minutes, setting the record for tallest urban free solo climb in history. He waved at tourists through the windows on his way up, took a selfie at the top, and described the whole thing as "pretty casual." The broadcast included a 10-second delay in case things went sideways. Reassuring! Between boxing, football, and now "guy scaling building with no safety equipment," the streamer's live events roster grows ever more eclectic.
Welcome back to The Dailies. Hope the snowstorm didn't bury you too badly. We've got box office numbers, and spoiler: the weather did not help. Let’s get into it. 👇
BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN
🎟️ A chilly weekend at the box office…
Chris Pratt in ‘Mercy’ (Amazon MGM Studios)
🤖 Mercy: 🆕 $11.2M domestic opening, $22.8M global debut, $60M budget. Chris Pratt's AI courtroom thriller dethroned 'Avatar' but couldn't outrun its own B- CinemaScore and 20% RT score. Amazon MGM kicks off 2026 with a modest win, though international markets weren't any kinder.
🌋 Avatar: Fire and Ash: (Wk 6) $7M domestic weekend (-52%), $378.5M domestic total, $1.378B global, $400M+ budget. Cameron's threequel finally cedes the throne after five consecutive weekends at No. 1, but still cleared $1B internationally, a feat that's increasingly rare these days. The $2B club is out of reach, and $1.5B looks like the new ceiling.
🐰 Zootopia 2: (Wk 9) $5.7M domestic weekend (-38%), $401.4M domestic total, $1.744B global, $150M budget.
🏠 The Housemaid: (Wk 6) $4.2M domestic weekend (-51%), $115.4M domestic total, $294.9M global, $35M budget.
🧟 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple: (Wk 2) $3.6M domestic weekend (-71%), $21.4M domestic total, $46.1M global, $63M budget.
🏓 Marty Supreme: (Wk 6) $3.5M domestic weekend (-36%), $86.2M domestic total, $105M global, $70M budget. Josh Safdie's ping-pong pic posted the best hold in the top five following its 9 Oscar nominations.
🎮 Return to Silent Hill: 🆕 $3.2M domestic opening from 1,850 locations, $23M budget. The video game adaptation rolled into theaters with a thud, way behind the 2006 original's $20M debut and saddled with a 15% RT score.
🎭 Hamnet: (Wk 9) $2M domestic weekend (+48%), $17.6M domestic total, $42M global, $35M budget. Chloé Zhao's Shakespearean drama expanded to nearly 2,000 theaters post-Oscar noms and delivered the weekend's best percentage gain. The awards campaign trail is working.
🧝♂️ The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring: (Wk 2 of re-release) $2M domestic weekend (-44%), $325.8M lifetime domestic.
🐒 Primate: (Wk 3) $1.6M domestic weekend (-67%), $23.5M domestic total, $30.5M global, $21M budget.
The Big Picture: A monster winter storm blanketing 37 states shuttered 400+ theaters and drove overall domestic grosses to a dismal $58M, the lowest frame of 2026. Newcomers 'Mercy' and 'Return to Silent Hill' couldn't generate much heat even without the weather as an excuse. The silver lining: Oscar season is providing a lift for 'Marty Supreme' and 'Hamnet,' a reminder that Academy noms can still move the needle.
CLOSEUP
🌄 Sundance hits its stride…
Charli XCX at the 'The Moment' premiere, Sundance 2026. (Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
Heading into Day 5 of its final Utah edition, the 2026 Sundance Film Festival is delivering equal parts nostalgia and nervous energy about indie film's future. A brief video tribute to founder Robert Redford, who passed in September, plays before screenings and draws applause throughout. The Egyptian Theatre on Main Street (a longtime festival hub) isn't screening new movies this year, a quiet sign of the transition already underway before next year's Boulder relocation.
The vibe is lighter than it should be, given everything. Despite shrinking buyer pools and the Netflix-Warner Bros. merger looming, observers note the mood feels lighter than last year. Here’s how the big titles so far are landing:
'The Moment' (Charli XCX): Hottest ticket, most divisive. A mockumentary about the pop star navigating her post-album fame spiral. Alexander Skarsgård steals it as a concert-film director trying to sanitize her image for family audiences. Critics landed around C+, calling it "for fans only." Kylie Jenner's cameo is getting more praise than anyone expected.
'I Want Your Sex' (Gregg Araki): His first film in 12 years. Olivia Wilde as a bondage-loving artist turning Cooper Hoffman into her plaything. Critics calling it her best role ever, even if the movie around her doesn't fully deliver.
'The Invite' (Olivia Wilde directing): Her post-'Don't Worry Darling' reset. Shot entirely in sequence with the ending undecided until they filmed it. Mixed reviews, but the Eccles crowd gave a standing ovation. Wilde was seen wiping away tears from the stage.
'Buddy' (Casper Kelly): The guy behind 'Too Many Cooks,' the viral Adult Swim short that deconstructed sitcom intros, brings his cult sensibility to the big screen. Starts as meticulous '90s kids TV recreation, flips into something darker when Cristin Milioti investigates from the present day. Critics calling it the first great midnight movie of 2026.
'Josephine' (Beth de Araújo): Based on the 'Soft & Quiet' director's real childhood trauma. An 8-year-old witnesses a sexual assault; the film follows her psychological unraveling. Critics praising Channing Tatum's performance as her father as his most vulnerable yet. Early awards-season buzz.
'Wicker' (Eleanor Wilson and Alex Huston Fischer): Olivia Colman as a fisherwoman who has a husband built out of wicker. Alexander Skarsgård (busy festival for him) plays the husband. Critics calling it bawdy and surprisingly sweet, if a bit thin beyond its wild premise. Double standing ovation at the premiere.
'The Gallerist' (Cathy Yan): Natalie Portman plays a gallery owner trying to pass off a dead body as conceptual art during Art Basel. Stacked cast (Jenna Ortega, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Catherine Zeta-Jones), but critics aren't feeling it. C-.
On the deal front: Quiet so far, but 'Josephine' and 'Wicker' are drawing interest. New players are in the mix, including Warner Bros.' specialty label and Black Bear. Worth remembering: last year's splashiest deals, Neon's 'Together' and Netflix's 'Train Dreams,' didn't happen until the final days.
Looking ahead… The fest continues this week and runs through Sunday.
CLOSEUP
🎲 Prediction markets are muscling into Hollywood…
Polymarket's live predictions wall at the Golden Globes. (Source: @goldenglobes on X)
If you're unfamiliar, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let users wager real money on future events, from presidential elections to award show winners. They've exploded in popularity recently. Nearly $12B was traded on the two platforms in December alone, up 400% from a year earlier. And now they're setting their sights on entertainment, popping up across awards shows, news coverage, and potential studio partnerships. Some recent developments:
The Golden Globes slapped Polymarket odds on-screen during this month's broadcast in what was perhaps the least subtle sponsored integration in awards show history. Estimates for the deal range from $10M to $100M.
CNN and CNBC have both struck deals with Kalshi to feature betting odds in their coverage. Meanwhile, Dow Jones, which owns the Wall Street Journal, has partnered with Polymarket.
According to some reports, Polymarket is actively reaching out to programming executives looking for deeper entertainment integrations.
So what’s driving it? Legacy media is feeling the squeeze. Ad revenues are eroding, linear TV is declining, and networks are scrambling for new revenue streams. The irony is that studios successfully lobbied to ban box office futures trading, which would have let investors bet on a film's financial performance, just 15 years ago as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act. Now similar products are coming in through the side door.
The core tension: Some see this as harmless "gamification" that boosts engagement, kind of like how fantasy football juiced NFL viewership. Others point to an ick factor: industry insiders could legally bet on outcomes they influence. And some say oversight would be trickier than live sports since producers and talent have way more control over entertainment outcomes. It's not exactly a level playing field when the ref can place bets.
Looking ahead… With prediction markets actively courting Hollywood and cash-strapped media companies willing to listen, expect more integrations in 2026. This year’s Globes stunt could just be the beginning.
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LAST LOOKS
Development 🗒️
Prime Video greenlit UK police thriller ‘Dirty,’ a mother-daughter crime drama from ‘Bridge of Spies’ writer Matt Charman. (more)
Lena Headey and Chloe Fineman joined Amazon MGM’s rom-com sequel ‘Red, White & Royal Wedding,’ now in production. (more)
Neon acquired worldwide rights to ‘4 X 4: The Event’, the new horror film from ‘It Ends’ director Alex Ullom, ahead of production. (more)
History is launching YouTube spinoff ‘MonsterQuest: Origins,’ hosted by Sapphire Sandalo, starting Jan. 27. (more)
Ji-young Yoo will recur in S2 of Apple TV’s ‘Presumed Innocent.’ (more)
Colin Jost will return to host ‘Pop Culture Jeopardy’ as the game show moves from Prime Video to Netflix for S2. (more)
Hulu picked up Amy DuBois Barnett’s debut novel ‘If I Ruled the World’ for a drama series adaptation, with Lee Daniels co-writing the pilot. (more)
FilmRise acquired worldwide TV and digital rights to YouTube franchise ‘The Infographics Show.’ (more)
Business 🤝
Anonymous Content named former Ford Foundation president Darren Walker as CEO. (more)
Production assistants on Netflix’s ‘The Four Seasons’ voted to unionize with Production Assistants United, marking the group’s first win in New York. (more)
FCC chair Brendan Carr flagged potential competition concerns around Netflix’s $83B Warner Bros. Discovery deal, now under DOJ review. (more)
Vue Cinemas averted a liquidation threat after settling a disputed unpaid bill with Coca-Cola’s European bottling arm. (more)
VIDEO VILLAGE
📺 Latest trailers
MARTINI SHOT
🍸 Latest viral moments
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See you Wednesday!
-The Dailies Team