🎬 Already Looking Shaky

👋 Good morning! 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' just crossed $1B worldwide, and James Cameron is now in a club of his own… literally. He's the first director in history with four billion-dollar films at the box office, joining 'Titanic,' 'Avatar,' and 'The Way of Water' on a Mount Rushmore he carved himself. Yet Cameron recently said he needs to prove the "crazy business case" before making ‘Avatar 4.’ Sure, Jim, the $8.5B combined gross could just be a fluke.

Welcome back to The Dailies and happy 2026. We hope your break was restful, your inbox merciful, and your streaming queue adequately dented. Coffee ready? Let's roll. 👇

The bigger picture: 2026 kicked off with the biggest first-weekend-of-January since COVID at $131.8M, up 21% from the same frame in 2025. Impressive holds from 'Zootopia 2' and 'The Housemaid' helped, but 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' did the heavy lifting, nearly out-grossing the top two films from the same frame last year ('Mufasa' and 'Sonic 3') combined.

Meanwhile, in the Upside Down: Netflix released the 'Stranger Things' series finale in 600+ theaters over New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, generating north of $25M in concession revenue. That’s more than 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' earned in actual ticket sales over the same stretch ($23.7M). AMC alone pulled in $15M from 753,000 attendees across 231 locations. Since theaters couldn't sell tickets due to cast residual terms, they charged $20 "concession vouchers" instead. Netflix pocketed nothing—a sweet olive branch as the streamer finalizes its Warner Bros. acquisition.

SAG-AFTRA is wrapping up weeks of "Wages & Working Conditions" meetings that have been running since December, where members weigh in on priorities before the union heads into contract negotiations. Talks with the AMPTP start February 9, with SAG going first, unusually early and ahead of both the WGA and DGA. It’s a clear sign nobody wants another 2023. That said, insiders still aren't expecting a quick resolution.

The broad strokes of a deal are already emerging: Studios are prepared to offer around $110M to prop up the guilds' struggling health plans, which have been hemorrhaging cash. The WGA's plan alone has lost $120M since their strike ended. In return, studios want contracts extended from three years to five.

Guild leaders aren't sold. With AI and streaming changing so rapidly, many feel that locking in terms through 2031 is too risky. The shorter contract cycle has always been labor's best leverage.

There's also new faces on both sides of the table. Sean Astin now leads SAG-AFTRA, Christopher Nolan is heading the DGA, and Greg Hessinger has taken over AMPTP. Meanwhile, the Netflix-WBD deal is still playing out, which means the guilds might show up to negotiations and find out the other side changed owners mid-handshake.

Looking ahead… Everyone's being polite for now, but the fundamental disagreement remains: studios want stability, guilds want flexibility. And the threat of a strike is the guilds' ultimate leverage, which means these talks usually go down to the deadline no matter when they start.

Your must-go spot during Sundance is The Impact Lounge. Originating at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival, it is now a traveling hub where filmmakers, changemakers, and creative leaders come together to spark meaningful change through the power of narrative and film.

They return to Park City’s Prospector Square January 21–28 for a week of conversations, community, and connection — including great snacks, morning coffee meetups with The Dailies, and evening gatherings throughout the week. Registration is free, but space is limited.

Netflix is still working to close its $83B Warner Bros. acquisition, and Ted Sarandos keeps saying they're "100% committed" to theatrical releases with “industry-standard windows.” But a Deadline report last week claimed Netflix has been pushing for a 17-day window, which set off alarm bells across the industry. Industry standard is 30-45 days—so if true, either Netflix has a different calendar or a different definition of "committed."

Industry insiders say a 17-day window would "steamroll the theatrical business." A movie that opens huge on Friday would hit streaming before its third weekend. The WB deal does come with existing contractual obligations to filmmakers, so it's unclear how much flexibility Netflix actually has here. Netflix hasn't officially confirmed any of this, for the record.

For context: Sarandos once called theatrical "an outmoded idea" and claimed 'Barbenheimer' would have had "the same cultural impact" on streaming. He's walked that back since announcing the WB deal, but a 17-day window isn’t exactly a change of heart.

Paramount's $30-per-share hostile bid is still on the table, and the Ellisons have been working to address WBD's concerns. Larry Ellison's financial guarantee is now "irrevocable." Previously it was backed by a trust he could pull money from at any time. Paramount also matched Netflix's $5.8B breakup fee, though they haven't raised the actual offer price. WBD's board is expected to reject the revised bid, citing timing risks: accepting Paramount would pause their planned cable spinoff while regulators review the deal.

Looking ahead… The board's rejection is just a recommendation—WBD shareholders have until Jan. 21 to tender their shares to Paramount's offer regardless. Paramount will almost certainly come back with more before then (at this point it’s basically tradition). Netflix's co-CEOs remain "super confident" they'll close the deal.

The Critics Choice Awards took place last night at Santa Monica's Barker Hangar, with Chelsea Handler hosting for a fourth straight year. 'One Battle After Another' took the top prize, plus Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay for Paul Thomas Anderson.

Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' came in with a massive 17 nominations but converted four: Best Original Screenplay, Best Score (Ludwig Göransson), Best Young Actor (Miles Caton), and the new Best Casting & Ensemble category. Some other wins:

What it means for the Oscars: Critics Choice is one of the stronger Oscar predictors, and last night's results point to a two-horse race. PTA's film has the momentum in top categories; Coogler's has the raw nomination muscle. Golden Globes are next Sunday, so expect this to tighten.