🎬 $75B Down the Drain

👋 Good morning! Nine years ago, Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson were on a porch in Greece, their kids pointing out how much the two look alike. Then McConaughey's mom turned to Harrelson and said, "Oh, I knew your father." Apparently it wasn't a joke. She'd dated him, and the two did the math. So yes, the guys from 'True Detective' may actually share a dad. Nine years later, McConaughey still hasn’t taken a DNA test, but we are getting an Apple TV comedy about it. Trailer’s below, draw your own conclusions.

Happy hump day. Top off the coffee, we've got a lot to get through. 👇

Movie piracy used to be a guy with a camcorder (Kramer, basically). Now it's a crisp, full-length upload in your feed before the studio's legal team has even had coffee. And this summer, with box office finally back to pre-COVID form, the year's biggest movies leaked one after another:

One studio source shrugged that once a movie's out in the world, some of this is just going to happen. Fair enough, but it's not cheap. Consulting firm Kearney and anti-piracy tracker Muso put the industry's losses at about $75B a year, on track for $125B by 2028. And lost ticket sales hurt everyone with a stake in the film, but especially talent with backend, since those deals only pay once a movie turns a profit. Nobody can say how much a leak sets that back. Could be $5M, could be $50M.

Who's on cleanup duty: Studios send the platform a takedown request and wait. If the copy keeps spreading, the lawyers get involved. Most platforms move quickly. X drags its feet like it's being asked to help a friend move a couch on a Saturday (it's also the one that lets Premium users upload four-hour videos). The MPA works a level up, going after organized piracy rings and the black-market streaming boxes that serve up Netflix and Disney+ for free.

Not all leaks are bad news, though. Studios have happily looked the other way when clips doubled as free marketing, like 'A Minecraft Movie' crowds going feral at a certain cameo, 'Obsession' jump scare reactions flooding TikTok, and 'Wicked' fans sobbing through 'Defying Gravity.' The line is control. A little is fine when the studio decides. It's a violation when someone else does.

Looking ahead… UK cinemas are starting to ban Meta smart glasses over piracy and privacy concerns. US chains haven't weighed in yet.

‘Coyote vs. ACME’ hits theaters Friday as one of the best-reviewed movies of the year. But it almost didn't get released. Fortunately, when the suits shelved it for a tax-write-off, outcry from fans saved the day. Just another example... When we unite, we have power! 

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🍁 Canada's trade fight just became Hollywood's problem too. US-Canada trade talks collapsed over the weekend, and the US has slapped 50% tariffs on billions in Canadian goods. One sticking point was a US demand that Ottawa drop rules requiring streamers to reinvest part of their Canadian revenue in Canadian content. Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a very polite Canadian no, calling local content a matter of national identity. Canada had already paused a plan to triple those streamer payments to keep talks friendly, and producers now want it back. That could be a headache for Hollywood, which shoots more in Canada than anywhere else abroad and is now staring at a fall production season with higher costs and no deal in sight.

🛒 Bankers are already carving up Warner Bros. Settlement talks between Paramount and California AG Rob Bonta hit a wall this week when Bonta canceled a meeting over alleged leaks. He's since said he'll listen if Paramount offers "structural remedies," which is antitrust-speak for selling things. Bankers reacted to the word "remedies" the way dogs react to the word "walk": they're reportedly already shopping New Line Cinema (the studio behind 'The Lord of the Rings' and 'It') and WB's cable networks to prospective buyers. Paramount hasn't yet agreed to divest anything, but with a $7M-a-day penalty clock starting Oct. 1, Wall Street is betting the deal loosens up. No new talks are on the calendar yet, so we’ll see.

📺 Netflix might start selling other people's shows. Netflix executives have reportedly talked about bringing Peacock and Fox One into the Netflix app. That's a big change of heart for a company that told shareholders two years ago it was basically the only channel you'd ever need. Nothing is signed yet, but a similar deal with French broadcaster TF1 has been live since June, and co-CEO Greg Peters likes what he's seeing. The bigger shift here is that the streaming wars are becoming the bundling wars. Amazon and Roku already do this, YouTube is folding Peacock into its Premium tier next year, and a third of new streaming signups now happen through a third party. Netflix wants to be the storefront, not the product.

For years, Hollywood's big fear was that the generation raised on phones and streaming would never become moviegoers. A new YouGov poll joins a growing pile of evidence that says relax. They're the ones showing up. Some numbers:

Zoom out: Despite all that, Hollywood's fall slate looks like it was built for their parents. September alone brings Mark Wahlberg, Brad Pitt, Sandra Bullock, and Nicole Kidman, stars whose audiences now mostly wait for the streaming window. This weekend was a preview: Jason Statham's 'Mutiny' and the Leslie Mann comedy 'Spa Weekend' both flopped, while A24's 'Tony' (Dominic Sessa as a young Anthony Bourdain) out-earned both per screen. Tellingly, September's best-tracking title, Zach Cregger's 'Resident Evil,' stars a 29-year-old.

Looking ahead… Tom Cruise's 'Digger' opens against Colleen Hoover's 'Verity,' and it's a decent read on whether younger audiences will come out for a legacy star, or whether the slate needs to keep catching up to them.

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